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1. outlook for the petroleum and petrochemical industry in 2022
looking back on the petroleum and petrochemical industry in the past year, after experiencing the impact of global public health incidents, the prices of crude oil and major downstream petrochemical products have fallen sharply and have shown a recovery trend. they have now returned to the central price in recent years following global easing policies and changes in the epidemic. above the level. from the perspective of the processing price difference of traditional bulk petrochemical products, taking the two most typical industrial chains, the ethylene industry chain and the polyester industry chain, for example, the ethylene-naphtha price difference and the px-naphtha price difference are still at a relatively low price difference. the range is far behind the recovery speed of oil prices. of course, there are lagging factors in the transmission of prices from upstream to downstream, but more of it reflects the weak growth rate of traditional bulk petrochemicals on the demand side; in contrast, some of the bulk chemicals with emerging demand, such as bdo, have seen amazing increases, far exceeding the repair rate of crude oil, showing a boom in supply and demand, and the petrochemical market has shown a significant differentiation pattern.
with the new carbon emission target-"striving to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060" and the entry into force of increasingly stringent environmental protection regulations such as the "plastic ban", the development of the petroleum and petrochemical industry the path has brought huge changes, especially in the fuel field and bulk materials field. our annual strategy last year started from the fuel sector directly affected by policies in the petroleum and petrochemical industry, and elaborated on the opportunities for the natural gas industry under the demand for clean fuel and low carbon: in the short to medium term, we will significantly increase the proportion of natural gas in the energy structure and replace coal. contrast high-carbon fuels to reduce carbon emissions; in the long-term, use ccus (carbon capture, utilization and storage) and natural gas hydrogen production to achieve carbon neutrality. in the above-mentioned way of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, there is huge room for increase in natural gas. in the past year, investment opportunities in the natural gas field have been phased in. looking forward to next year, we will start from the field of petrochemical bulk materials and explain the development prospects and development of the green and low-carbon material industry chain under the new policy environment. broad space.
1.1 global policies drive the rapid growth of biodegradable plastics
due to the continuous environmental pollution and high carbon emissions caused by ordinary plastics in the production, use and disposal process, they are increasingly deviating from the current environmental protection policies and the "dual carbon" goal. therefore, there is an urgent need for corresponding alternative solutions. degradable plastics have entered people's vision as a substitute with the main goal of solving plastic waste environmental pollution. some bio-based degradable plastics also have the advantage of reducing carbon emissions during the production process. as a result, directly driven by the domestic intensive plastic ban policy, disposable plastic products such as plastic straws will be removed from the shelves from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, and the performance shortcomings of alternatives such as paper straws have allowed the market to identify and accept biodegradable plastics. as the best alternative, superimposed on the resonance of domestic and foreign policies and the advanced and over-range layout of large multinational companies in responding to policies have further promoted the blowout of demand for biodegradable plastics.
1.1.1 the global plastic waste hazards are increasing
since the birth of the world's first plastic, celluloid (nitrocellulose plastic) in 1869, plastics has developed more than 140 commercialized plastic varieties including five general-purpose plastics, of which there are about 30 commonly used varieties. at the same time, the growth of plastic production is also considerable, especially with the rapid development of the petrochemical industry after world war ii. the global plastic production capacity has increased from 1.7 million tons/year in 1950 to 368 million tons/year in 2019, an increase of 200 many times, its growth rate is much higher than the growth rate of global gdp (constant price) during the same period.
since the birth of plastics for more than 150 years, theoretically the first batch of plastic products will need at least an additional 150 years to be completely degraded. during the 65 years from 1950 to 2015, about 8.3 billion tons of plastic have been manufactured globally. if piled on flat ground, it will form a 5,680-meter-high mountain. except for the 2.5 billion tons that is still in initial use, the remaining 5.8 billion tons have been abandoned or recycled: 4.9 billion tons were landfilled or abandoned, 800 million tons were incinerated, and only 100 million tons were still in use after being recycled (300 million tons were recycled and abandoned again). look, in fact, most of the used plastics are abandoned/landfilled (84.5%) and incinerated (13.8%). if the 2016-2019 output and the 2020-2021 output estimate are added, the total output has so far exceeded 10 billion tons, of which the total amount of abandoned and landfilled is about 6.2 billion tons.
from the perspective of the proportion of plastic waste disposal methods, the original plastic waste was completely discarded after use. in 1981, part of the plastic waste was treated by incineration. it was not until 1988 that part of the plastic waste was recycled for recycling. use. in recent years, the proportion of incineration and recycling of plastic waste has continued to increase. by 2015, the above two treatment methods accounted for 25.5% and 19.5% respectively, and more than half of plastic waste was still abandoned (including landfill).
from the perspective of the proportion of plastic waste recycling, even in the european union, which has the most popular environmental protection concept and the longest implementation of plastic waste recycling, its plastic waste recycling rate in 2015 was only 30.4%, and the global recycling rate was even lower in the same period. , about 19.5%. at the same time, even in the european union, its plastic waste production has shown a trend of year-on-year growth. in 2018, the eu's plastic waste production grew by about 3.56% month-on-month, while the global plastic waste production grew even faster, reaching 9.61%. at the same time, although the amount of plastic waste discarded (including landfill) in the eu has been declining since 2008, in fact, plastic waste exported to other regions is not included in the statistics, and the amount of discarded (including landfill) globally is actually still growing. according to the natural degradation cycle of plastics on land, almost all plastic wastes currently abandoned (including landfills) are in the process of degradation. with the increasing trend year by year, the pollution situation of plastic waste has become increasingly severe.
after the plastic is discarded, the parts left on the land, such as plastic bags/plastic agricultural film, will destroy the soil structure, affect the growth of plant roots, and reduce crop yields. according to research, even the microplastics formed after crushing will hinder the growth of earthworms and other soil organisms, and the toxic additives added in the production of plastics will also be released, further harming the soil ecosystem, making the soil more and more compact, low yield, and threatening food security.
at present, what is more worthy of attention is the plastic waste that enters the ocean and other water bodies, which is believed to form microplastics and bring more extensive and far-reaching impact. according to multiple studies, ingested microplastics can cause varying degrees of damage to the digestive tract of organisms, and affect the reproduction rate of certain organisms and enzyme activities in the body. more importantly, microplastics can adsorb other pollutants, such as carcinogenic polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and endocrine interferon bpa and various pesticides. after being ingested by organisms, they are released into their bodies, causing more serious problems. as a result of. studies have shown that in principle, microplastics can be transferred to the lymphatic circulatory system through the human gastrointestinal system, absorbed by the unborn baby through the placenta, and absorbed by the human body through the lungs, eventually causing the immune system to react and affecting the health of the body's cells . the overall impact of microplastics on the ecosystem is still in the research stage, but the above-mentioned phased results indicate that its harm may be far greater than people's current cognition.
1.1.2 market-proven biodegradable plastic is the best alternative
as the country’s policy of banning non-degradable plastic bags, plastic tableware, and disposable plastic straws will be implemented the following year, starting in 2020, many brand chain beverages and restaurants will collectively remove disposable plastic straws, plastic table spoons, disposable plastic tableware, including plastic forks, are replaced with paper straws, wooden forks and spoons. after new year's day in 2021, the delisting phenomenon quickly spread to all chain catering industries.
however, after a period of use and feedback, consumers generally report that the experience of using replacement products, including paper straws, is far from previous. according to the results of instrumental evaluation of paper straws used by some brands by a number of media, the paper straws participating in the test performed disappointingly in terms of bearing capacity (corresponding to the resistance to tooth bite), and compared with ordinary plastic or biodegradable plastic straws. the difference is obvious; in the test of soaking resistance in beverages, all the paper straws are deformed and swollen. the experience is even worse. in actual use, especially when used in hot drinks, the paper straws are softened and bent. decomposing occurs, and the role of the straw is completely lost.
in addition to the deterioration of the physical function of the straw, the paper straw also has many problems in terms of taste and pass rate. collected consumer feedback indicated that most of the paper straws have a papery taste, and some brands have obvious sourness.
other alternatives such as wooden tableware are also facing similar problems. consumers have concentrated on questioning that the front end of the wooden table spoon is too flat and cannot be used effectively, and some products have a heavier wood taste that affects the taste. paper bags used to replace disposable plastic bags have potential safety hazards-when they encounter water, especially high-temperature water, the physical properties of the paper bags will rapidly decrease and they cannot effectively carry objects. a paper food packaging bag of a well-known chain restaurant brand once had a news event that hot drinks fell from the bottom and caused burns.
when merchants are looking for new straw materials to replace non-degradable plastics, the main trade-off factor in the early stage is cost. according to the comparison of prices at that time, the unit price of plastic straws is only about 0.065 yuan/piece, the price of paper straws is about 0.09~0.14 yuan, and the price of pla (polylactic acid) straws is 0.18~0.25 yuan/piece. using pla straws, the single cost is about 0.15 yuan higher than plastic straws. according to naxue’s tea prospectus, the average order volume of its single store in 2018-2020q3 is about 608 orders per day. it is calculated based on the conservative data of 1 cup of drink per order, and considering the 10% loss rate, pla straws are used instead. the monthly cost increase per store brought by the original plastic straws was about 3,000 yuan, while the paper straws only increased about 1,000 yuan. the replacement cost difference of 340,000 tea shops across the country was about 8.16 billion yuan/year.
with the use of paper straws, consumers began to continue to report poor user experience and negative reviews of store operators. some consumers even reduced the frequency of consumption. at the same time, the initial supply of paper straws and pla straws caused a premium after the rapid increase in production capacity of the two, the price difference between the two was gradually stabilized, and the price difference between the two was also reduced. later, the single price difference between pla straws and paper straws has been reduced to a few cents. finally, the merchants considered the impact on sales volume and the narrowing of the cost gap. , replacing paper straws and disposable plastic straws with pla straws no longer has the previous cost resistance.
similarly, in the alternative materials for other disposable plastic tableware, lunch boxes, and packaging bags that are prohibited by the policy, biodegradable plastics have the least impact on consumer experience because their performance is very close to the original ordinary plastics. whether it is for wooden table spoons with too small arc or paper food packaging bags with potential safety hazards, the use of a new generation of biodegradable plastics to replace them is the best solution to the above problems.
as the market determined that biodegradable plastics are the best alternative to the original disposable plastic products after trial and error, the demand for biodegradable plastic products exploded rapidly-several plastic product companies located in jiangsu and zhejiang during the spring festival so far, the production lines are basically at full capacity, and workers have implemented a three-shift work system. even during the spring festival holiday, the factory will be full of trucks for delivery. one of the effects of the downstream demand blowout on the upstream is that degradable plastics and their upstream key raw materials have skyrocketed. typical examples are the prices of polylactic acid, pbat and its upstream raw material bdo.
1.1.3 global policy resonance has spawned a turning point in the biodegradable plastics industry
as early as 1999, my country issued the "state economic and trade commission issue (99) no. 6 order", stipulating that the production and use of disposable foamed plastic tableware should be completely banned before the end of 2000. in 2007, the “notice of the general office of the state council on restricting the production and sale of plastic shopping bags” was promulgated to restrict and reduce the use of plastic bags. subsequently, the country issued the "opinions on further strengthening the control of plastic pollution" in four areas that prohibit or restrict the use of disposable plastic bags, plastic tableware, and plastic packaging. finally, in july 2020, nine ministries and commissions including the national development and reform commission jointly issued the "notice on solid promotion of plastic pollution control". in addition, in specific areas, the "agricultural film management measures" and the "notice on further strengthening the treatment of plastic pollution in the commercial field" and other sub-industry corresponding measures have been introduced in specific fields.
based on the above-mentioned laws and regulations, the production and sale of plastic products below 2021 have been banned nationwide. in accordance with relevant policy requirements, illegal production and sales of plastic products prohibited by the state may even have their business license revoked and fined between 10,000 and 100,000 yuan if the circumstances are serious: 1. ultra-thin plastic bags of 0.025 mm; 2. ultra-thin plastic bags of 0.01 mm. polyethylene agricultural mulch film; 3. non-degradable disposable straws (except the straws that come with the outer packaging of food such as milk and beverages); 4. disposable foamed plastic tableware; 5. disposable plastic cotton swabs; 6. plastic microbeads daily chemicals.
western developed countries/regions represented by the european union realized the need for effective management of plastic waste earlier, so relevant policies and regulations were promulgated earlier: in 1975, the european union promulgated a bill on waste planning. the packaging act was introduced in 1994, which stipulated the recycling rate of various substances including plastics to reduce resource consumption.
in the past decade or so, various countries and regions represented by the european union have further issued more policies and regulations, restricting the use of non-degradable plastics through local bans and restrictions, and guiding the public to reduce their reliance on plastic products. most of these regulations are regulations prohibiting the use of disposable plastic products on the consumer side. among them, the more far-reaching impact is the eu’s regulations in 2020 that will impose a tax of 800 euros per ton on disposable plastic packaging in 2021 and direct regulations in 2021. regulations for prohibiting/restricting the use of dozens of disposable plastic products. the two regulations are aimed at the middle and upper reaches and the downstream, which are enough to shake up the industry’s supply
although the "guidelines on disposable plastic products (sup)" promulgated by the european commission on may 31, 2021 failed to update the previous classification and definition of degradable plastics, considering the extremely fast update and development speed in this field, the european commission plans to formulate a clear policy framework for bio-based plastics (bbp), biodegradable plastics and compostable plastics (bdcp) in 2022.
in order to avoid negative impacts on their operations when faced with policy changes, large enterprises, especially chain enterprises operating globally, tend to lay out ahead of schedule to deal with the expected changes that will be implemented, and some enterprises have set aside a margin of safety or promoted the enterprise. from the perspective of reputation and brand value, the actions required by policies and regulations will be implemented beyond the scope.
international liquor giant pernod ricard announced in 2018 that it will no longer use plastic straws and cocktail sticks made of non-degradable materials in all global businesses. mcdonald's stated in june 2018 that it would launch paper straws, saying that the decision was part of its efforts to promote environmental protection more widely. starbucks announced in july 2019 that in 2020, plastic straws will be discontinued globally and replaced with paper straws. more than 3,600 domestic stores will also achieve this goal in the same period. pepsi-cola said in 2019 that it will get rid of disposable packaging, so that by 2025 all the company's packaging will be recyclable, compostable or degradable. in august 2020, tea brands such as naixue's tea, hey tea, and michelle ice city announced that all stores across the country will fully or gradually replace plastic straws with paper or biodegradable straws.
if tea brands are using environmentally-friendly straws instead of disposable plastic straws to avoid the suspension of business licenses or fines as a last resort, then the replacement of disposable plastic products that are not covered by this ban will be it more reflects the brand's marketing and esg (environmental, social, corporate governance) considerations: on the one hand, the early implementation of regulations is to advance and ensure the implementation progress in advance to avoid expiration of penalties or suspension of business licenses, on the other hand, companies it can also be used to demonstrate the company's sense of social responsibility when promoting its own environmental protection concepts to consumers, and improve the local reputation and corporate brand value.
from overseas to domestic, and then to local areas, in recent years, restrictive policies for non-degradable plastic products have been intensively promulgated, management standards have become increasingly strict, and the circulation of disposable plastic products has been gradually tightened. from the policy end at home and abroad to the implementation end of the enterprise, resonance gave birth to an inflection point in the biodegradable plastics industry, and the advance layout and expanded implementation of enterprises further promoted the arrival of the inflection point in advance.
